Nearly four-dozen House seats — 47, to be exact — that are currently held by Democrats are rated as “toss-ups” or possible flips in Republicans’ favor, according to the latest prediction map from Real Clear Politics.
The map predicts that the fast-approaching midterms — just 29 days away at the time of this article’s publication — would likely reverse the balance of power in the House of Representatives. The current balance includes 220 Democrats, 212 Republicans, and three vacancies left by deceased Congresswoman Jackie Walorski (R-IN), and resigning Congressman Charlie Crist (D-FL) and Ted Deutch (D-FL). RCP’s new map predicts a shift to 220 Republicans and 180 Democrats — with 35 races listed as “toss-ups.”
Also important to note is the fact that the most recent status changes for individual races have been moves in favor of Republicans, as labels move from “safe Dem” to “likely Dem”; from “likely Dem” to “leans Dem”; from “leans Dem” to “toss-up,” and so on. All ten races that have changed in the last ten days have moved one category in Republicans’ favor.
The predictions from RCP’s Senate map are bit more reserved, in part because there are fewer seats in play, but also appear to show a slight edge for Republicans. The current balance — 5o Democrats and 50 Republicans with Vice President Kamala Harris to break the tie — appears likely to shift, with the map showing 47 seats going to Republicans and 46 to Democrats. Seven seats are still listed as toss-ups.
But the trend lines in the Senate seem to be moving in the same direction as the trend lines in the House, with the last five races to show changes in status moving in favor of Republicans. Those races — in Missouri, Washington, Vermont, Ohio, and Alaska — could easily tip the balance to give Republicans a solid majority in the Senate.
The latest Monmouth University poll — released at the beginning of October — does not bode any better for Democrats.
“Monmouth shows a 10-point swing in favor of GOP over the last month,” RealClearPolitics co-founder and president Tom Bevan tweeted, sharing a link to the poll.
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) October 3, 2022
Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, explained why the current picture meant that the Democrats were facing an uphill battle over the next several weeks.
“Because the congressional map favors the GOP, Democrats need to do more than ‘keep it close’ in order to hold onto their House majority. One roadblock for them is that the issue picture favors Republicans,” he said.