Harvard-Harris Poll: Trump Leads Among GOP For 2024 Primaries

A new poll shows former President Donald Trump at the top of the 2024 GOP nomination for president.

According to the latest Harvard CAPS-Harris poll, taken between December 13 – 15 with 1,851 registered voters participating, Trump leads potential Republican primary opponents by 23 points.

When only GOP voters were asked, “If the Republican presidential primary for the 2024 election was held today, who would you vote for?,” the 45th president secured 48% of support, Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) earned 25%, and former Vice President Mike Pence received six percent of the vote. No other possible challengers scored more than four percent of the vote.

Removing Trump from the equation, it seems many poll respondents shifted their preference to DeSantis, who came in first place with 48% support, Pence was bumped up to 15% in that scenario, and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley received five percent of the vote.

The survey also indicated that the base of the GOP still favors Trump. In one question, the organizers of the poll asked only GOP voters, “If the Republican party primary is down to two choices, Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, who would you choose to run as president in 2024 among the two?”

Trump earned 55% while 45% of voters supported the Florida governor.

However, Independents seem to prefer a Trump alternative.

The same question was posed to “GOP + Independents” and DeSantis topped Trump, 52% to 48%, respectively.

Both Trump and DeSantis defeated President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in fictional 2024 general election matchups.

Some other recent polls show similar results. A Politico/Morning Consult poll taken between November 18 – 20 asked voters, “If the 2024 Republican presidential primary were being held today, for whom would you vote?”

Forty-five percent of voters backed Trump, 30% went for DeSantis, and no other potential options earned more than seven percent support.

As pointed out by other commentators, Trump tends to lead possible Republican primary opponents by double digits when in a crowded field.

When the choices are between DeSantis and Trump, the race is much closer, with DeSantis winning in numerous samples.

For example, a recent poll from The Wall Street Journal found DeSantis leading Trump 52% to 38%. 86% of respondents had a favorable view of DeSantis; 74% had a favorable view of Trump.

Still, the Journal observed that support for both candidates “could look different in what will surely be a multicandidate primary field than it does in a head-to-head matchup.”

The Harvard/Harris poll shows that Trump gained two points from the firm’s November survey. That increase occurred even after controversies such as his dinner with Kanye “Ye” West and white nationalist Nick Fuentes at Mar-A-Lago. DeSantis, on the other hand, went down three points during that same time.

So far, Trump is the only declared 2024 candidate. The New Hampshire GOP primary is still more than a year away. Plenty can change from now until then, and Trump’s overall standing has fallen, but at this moment, the available data show that the former president is still the preferred choice amongst GOP voters.

The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.

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