Sisolak has struggled to overcome significant Democratic headwinds in the final weeks of his campaign for re-election. Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, his Republican opponent, has run even with or beaten Sisolak in every poll since August, according to a tracker by FiveThirtyEight. The election analysis outlet has Lombardo leading Sisolak 46% to 44.4% in its polling average.
The InsiderAdvantage/American Greatness poll released Sunday is a survey of 550 likely voters. The survey was conducted on October 20 and has a margin of error of 4.2 points. The poll measured Lombardo’s support at 48.5% and Sisolak’s at 42.8%. An additional 4.1% of likely voters support the Libertarian, Brandon Davis, and 4.6% of likely voters are undecided.
The poll also contained bad news for Nevada’s incumbent Democratic U.S. senator, Catherine Cortez Masto. She is trailing former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, the Republican in the race, by about 2 points: 48.2% to 46.3%. While the race for U.S. Senate is polling more competitively, Cortez Masto is suffering the same headwinds that are pulling down Sisolak. Cortez Masto is trailing in four consecutive polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight.
Democrats’ abortion bump following the overturning of Roe v. Wade this summer appears to have all but disappeared as voters prioritize issues such as the economy and crime over abortion access. Inflation has hit Nevada particularly hard. The state’s inflation rate is one of the worst in the nation, measured at 16% by one tracker.
The trend of voters in Nevada is part of a larger shift across the U.S. as Election Day nears. A New York Times/Siena College poll released last week showed the GOP with a 4-point edge over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot. According to the survey, 49% of likely voters plan to vote for a Republican for Congress compared to 45% who plan to vote for a Democrat.
Concerns over the economic environment have surged eight points since a July NYT/Siena from 36% to 44%. The economy measured far higher among voter concerns than any other issue.